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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2022 Oct 05 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 05-Oct 07 2022 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 05-Oct 07 2022

Oct 05Oct 06Oct 07
00-03UT5 (G1)32
03-06UT443
06-09UT342
09-12UT333
12-15UT222
15-18UT231
18-21UT222
21-00UT332

Rationale: There is an early expectation of a G1 (Minor) storm on 05 Oct due to CH HSS effects, coupled with any potential transient influences; otherwise, primarily quiet to active conditions are anticipated.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 05-Oct 07 2022

Oct 05Oct 06Oct 07
S1 or greater35%25%10%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background, with a chance for an S1 (Minor solar radiation storm) event 05-06 Oct, due primarily to the solar energetic particle event probabilities and somewhat favorable location of Region 3110. Region 3110 rotates beyond the limb by 07 Oct, therefore, proton event chances decrease to a slight chance.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 04 2022 1315 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 05-Oct 07 2022

Oct 05Oct 06Oct 07
R1-R265%60%55%
R3 or greater30%25%20%

Rationale: There is a continuing likelihood of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) and a chance for X-class flares (R3; Strong) 05-06 Oct due primarily to the flare tendencies of Region 3110 and flare potential of Region 3112. Region 3110 will rotate beyond the west limb, leaving Region 3112 as the main flare potential source, and therefore solar activity is likely to remain moderate, with a slight chance of X-class flares on 07 Oct.

Sun Images


eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304
 

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

 
SDO/HMI
Continuum
SDO/HMI
Magnetogram
LASCO C2 LASCO C3
 

The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.
 

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

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Solar cycle


Sunspot numbers F10.7CM Radio flux AP
 
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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

 
Solar wind Satellite impact Xray flux
 
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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Right: 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Auroral activity


Northern Auroral map Southern Auroral map
 

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie


Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.



Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).


Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

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