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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Dec 11 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 11-Dec 13 2023 is 3.33 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 11-Dec 13 2023

	Dec 11	Dec 12	Dec 13
00-03UT	2.00	3.00	3.00
03-06UT	3.33	3.33	3.00
06-09UT	3.00	2.67	3.00
09-12UT	3.00	2.33	2.67
12-15UT	2.33	2.00	2.67
15-18UT	2.33	2.00	3.00
18-21UT	2.33	2.33	1.67
21-00UT	3.00	3.00	2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 11-Dec 13 2023

	Dec 11	Dec 12	Dec 13
S1 or greater	10%	10%	5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 11-12 Dec due to the flare potential of Regions 3511 and 3513.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 10 2023 0353 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 11-Dec 13 2023

	Dec 11	Dec 12	Dec 13
R1-R2	55%	55%	40%
R3 or greater	10%	10%	5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or greater events, on 11-12 Dec due to the flare potential of Regions 3511 and 3513. There is a chance for R1-R2 events on 13 Dec as Region 3511 transits the W limb.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
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Solar cycle

Sunspot numbers	F10.7CM Radio flux	AP


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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

Solar wind	Satellite impact	Xray flux


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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Right: 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Auroral activity

Northern Auroral map	Southern Auroral map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.